MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas
Philadelphia Phillies
Win total: 85.5
Prediction: Under
The Phillies finished 81-81 last year, 4th in the East. The addition of shortstop Didi Gregorius will push Scott Kingery to third base, and the addition of starting pitcher Zack Wheeler will push injury-prone Jake Arrieta back a slot in the rotation.
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There are many question marks with this bunch. Can Bryce Harper return to the MVP conversation? Is Rhys Hoskins more than an all-or-nothing hitter? Can Zack Wheeler handle a high-pressure starting role? What can the Phillies get out of the back of their starting rotation?
It reads cliché, but I believe Philadelphia’s success vastly depends on Harper. He is one of a handful of players in the game that can carry an offense, but he hasn’t done so in a couple of seasons. Mark the $330 million man for a .300 batting average and 130 RBI in 2020 and suddenly the Phillies are a serious contender. His production would impact the rest of a lineup that was rather pedestrian a season ago.
I think the Phillies will really teeter with that 85.5 total; though, I think they’ll fall just short in the end. Too much must go right for them to exceed the number.
Miami Marlins
Win total: 63.5
Prediction: Under
It’s very important for a team to be “good up the middle” in baseball. You want production offensively and defensively from your catcher, pitcher, second baseman, shortstop, and center fielder. The Marlins are not good up the middle.
Jorge Alfaro is worthy of the top catching spot on the Marlins’ depth chart, though he’s rather average compared to other big league backstops. Second baseman Isan Diaz hit just .173 in 179 at-bats last year. Shortstop Miguel Rojas hit .284 in nearly 500 ABs in 2019, but he hit only five home runs and drove in just 46 runs. And center fielder Lewis Brinson has yet to live up to his hype. The 6’3” speedster has compiled a .183/.238/.293 slash line over three sparse seasons.
Miami pitchers had their moments last year; however, the staff still finished with a 13th ranked ERA in the National League.
They won 57 games in 2019. I don’t see the Marlins doing much better in 2020. Take the under.