MLB Games: Simulating opening weekend for the AL

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Brandon Lowe’s four-RBI game helped Tampa Bay win a simulated series against Pittsburgh. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

MLB games were played this opening weekend…but only on paper. Here’s how the eight AL home series simulations turned out.

If you’re as much of a baseball fan as I am, this is a sad day. It’s supposed to be the start of opening weekend, yet no games are being played…nor is there any expectation when MLB games might begin.

The uncertainty of the present circumstance can only be remedied one way … with a simulation.

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There are plenty of games on the market that will produce a reasonable facsimile of what might have taken place this weekend had those games been played.

This simulation uses one of those games which, out of a desire not to provide free advertising, shall remain unidentified.

For the vast majority of players, the simulation is based on the actual 2019 statistics generated by those players. In rare exceptions, modifications are required, and when that happens one of two avenues is taken.

For a handful of players whose 2019 experience was both abbreviated and sensational – think Sean Manaea and Gavin Lux – their 2020 projections are used to modify the 2019 data.

In a second and more difficult handful of cases where a player simply has no previous major league experience yet is expected to play a big part in his team’s 2020 season, projections are based on a fairly standard major league season. Those players include Louis Robert and Yoshitorro Tsutsugo

These projected outcomes follow the published MLB schedule. Are they accurate?

We’ll let you know that at such time as the actual Major League season gets underway.

In the meantime, root for your favorite simulated team.

The AL home series results follow. You can find the National League home series results in a companion article.

(Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images) /

Simulating MLB Games

AL East

The Baltimore Orioles rudely welcomed Gerrit Cole to the AL East. In Baltimore, Orioles batters tied into the Yankees’ opening day starter for seven earned runs in just three and one-third innings on their way to a 7-4 victory.

Anthony Santander homered and drove in three runs against Cole.

Baltimore also took the series’ second game 4-3 in 10 innings. Against Asher Wojciechowski and three relievers, the Yankees stranded a dozen baserunners.

Playing without injured stars Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees avoided a season-opening sweep by breaking a 3-3 tie on Gary Sanchez’s solo home run off Alex Cobb. Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman pitched scoreless relief to preserve the 4-3 victory.

Sanchez’s homer was one of three Cobb allowed; D J LeMahieu and Brett Gardner also tapped him as part of an 11-hit New York attack.

In Toronto, the young Blue Jays took three out of four from the visiting Boston Red Sox. Hyun-Jin Ryu out-pitched Eduardo Rodriguez in the 3-1 opening day victory. Boston evened the score on Friday as Nathan Eovaldi delivered six strong innings and J.D. Martinez’ 10th inning sacrifice fly broke a 3-3 tie.

The Red sox carried a 7-4 lead into the ninth inning of Saturday’s third game, but Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk all delivered home runs, Grichuk’s walk-off winning the game 9-8. The Jays won 6-4 on Sunday thanks to home runs by Biggio, Gurriel and Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Bryan Reynolds drove in four runs with two doubles as Pittsburgh beat Tampa Bay 5-3 in St. Petersburg. But the Rays came back to win the series’ final two games, 4-1 behind Charlie Morton and 8-3 on a combined seven RBIs from Brandon Lowe (4) and Yoshitorro Tsutsugo (3).

(Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

Simulating MLB Games

AL Central

The Chicago White Sox, rated as divisional contenders for the first time in a decade, opened at home by winning two of three MLB games from the Kansas City Royals.

Behind Lucas Giolito’s seven strong innings, the White Sox shut out the Royals 2-0 on opening day, Giolito allowing just two hits in seven innings. Jose Abreu drove in both White Sox runs with a fifth-inning RBI double.

Chicago also took the Sunday game 6-4 with Gio Gonzalez working six innings in his South Side debut.

Chicago nearly made it a sweep, losing a 10-6 lead on a five-run Kansas City sixth, tying the game 11-11, then losing in the 10th inning on Ryan O’Hearn’s solo home run off reliever Evan Marshall.

Defending American League batting champion jump-started his defense of that title with nine hits in the opening series. Anderson scored six times.

Despite the temporary absence of ace Mike Clevinger, still recovering from a pre-season injury, the Cleveland Indians took two of three from the visiting Tigers. Six Indians pitchers held the Tigers to five hits in a 6-3 opening day victory. The Tigers evened the books on Saturday with an 8-6 win built on a six-run seventh inning off starter Aaron Civale and two relievers.

But the Tigers’ hopes took a hit when outfielder JaCoby Jones was injured in a collision with Corbin Maybin. Jones is expected to be out for about three weeks. The Sunday game ended on Francisco Lindor’s 2-run 11th inning walk-off home run.

The top of the Indians’ order, Lindor, Oscar Mercado, and Domingo Santana, combined for 19 hits across the three games.

Simulating MLB Games

AL West

The Texas Rangers took full advantage of the scheduling opportunity that had them opening with four MLB games against the Seattle Mariners. Ranger hitters lit up the Mariners for 26 runs in sweeping the home team.

Lance Lynn and three relievers held the Mariners to four hits in a 3-2 opening day win, after which the Rangers’ big guns stepped up. On Friday the Rangers cruised 11-4. They won 7-3 on Saturday as Willie Calhoun’s three hits – two of them home runs – produced four runs.