MLB Games: Simulating opening weekend for the NL

The New York Mets make the biggest first impression, sweeping three MLB games from the champs.

If you’re as much of a baseball fan as I am, this is a sad day. It’s supposed to be opening day, yet no MLB games are being played…nor is there any expectation when games might begin.

The uncertainty of the present circumstance can only be remedied one way … with a simulation.

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There are plenty of games on the market that will produce a reasonable facsimile of what might have taken place this weekend had the games been played.

This simulation uses one of those games which, out of a desire not to provide free advertising, shall remain unidentified. This installment reports on the results of the first weekend of simulated games hosted by National League teams.

For companion results of games hosted by American League teams, you can follow this link.

For the vast majority of players, the simulation is based on the actual 2019 statistics generated by those players. In rare exceptions, modifications are required, and when that happens one of two avenues is taken.

For a handful of players whose 2019 experience was both abbreviated and sensational – think Sean Manaea and Gavin Lux – their 2020 projections are used to modify the 2019 data.

In a second and more difficult handful of cases where a player simply has no previous major league experience yet is expected to play a big part in his team’s 2020 season, projections are based on a fairly standard major league season. Those players include Louis Robert and Yoshitorro Tsutsugo

How accurate are these simulated results? We won’t really know that until the actual Major League season gets underway.

In the meantime, root for your favorite simulated National League team.

Simulating MLB Games

NL East

Possibly the most anticipated opening weekend series pitting defending champion Washington Nationals against the New York Mets went entirely New York’s way, At Citi Field, the Mets won all three games, two of them 4-3 and the Sunday contest 4-1.

That was the good news. The bad news, of course, was the arm soreness experienced by projected No. 2 starter Noah Syndergaard that put him under the knife for season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Pete Alonso homered in the season opener, a game in which Nats starter Max Scherzer was ejected from what at that point was a 3-3 tie for arguing balls and strikes.

The Phillies led 3-0  entering the eighth inning on Saturday when Dominic Smith’s pinch-hit home run finally got New York’s offense going. In the ninth, Alonso delivered another home run, this one a three-run walk-off against Nats closer Will Harris.

New York completed the sweep Sunday with Marcus Stroman out-pitching Patrick Corbin 4-1.

The visiting Phillies took three of four against the Miami Marlins. Aaron Nola delivered a strong outing in a 7-2 opening day victory, and Zach Wheeler followed by leading a 3-0 whitewashing of the Marlins on Friday. That game was scoreless until the ninth when Scott Kingery produced a bases-clearing double.

The Marlins got in the win column Saturday as Caleb Smith and three relievers scattered 13 hits in a 4-3 win that was only sealed Jose Alfaro’s home run started a two-run ninth-inning uprising against Ranger Suarez. The Phillies rode J.T. Realmuto’s three-run home run to Sunday’s 7-2 victory.

Simulating MLB Games

NL Central

The season opener in Milwaukee pitted 2019 divisional contenders against one another. In the season opener, Brian Woodruff and relievers held the visiting Chicago Cubs to just four singles in a 5-0 victory. New Brewer first baseman Justin Smoak drove in three runs with a third-inning home run.

The Brewers won Saturday’s game 5-2, Smoak homering again and Keston Hiura also going deep. Chicago’s offense finally warmed upon Sunday when Willson Contreras opened up what to that point was a 3-1 game with a three-run home run highlighting a five-run Cubs ninth. Good thing he did because Milwaukee rallied with four runs in the bottom of the ninth before Rowan Wick got the final out in an 8-5 Cubs decision.

The divisional champion Cardinals met the much-discussed Reds in a three-game season opener in Cincinnati. The taxing opener lasted 16 innings before the Cards emerged with a 4-3 victory on Tyler O’Neill’s base hit scoring backup catcher Matt Wieters.

The Reds rode Trevor Bauer’s pitching to a 2-0 Saturday victory that was decided on Nick Senzel’s two-run seventh-inning home run off Miles Mikolas.

On Sunday the Cardinals produced a half dozen runs by the time Sonny Gray completed two innings on the mound for Cincinnati, and that was more than enough for Cardinals starter John Flaherty. Paul Goldschmidt enjoyed a four-hit day that included home runs in the first and seventh innings. The final was 8-0.