MLB Teams: Previewing the new divisions, the west

If and when baseball returns in 2020, MLB teams will be aligned in very different divisions. Which newly constructed division is the strongest?

Major League Baseball is set to bring forth its plan for a return-to-play this coming Tuesday (per ESPN), and one very important aspect of its proposal will pertain to travel. Although, as we await the League’s grand plan to bring the sport back, there has already been discussions about how travel could work in a potential 2020 season, especially as it relates to divisions.

Last month CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson reported on a discussed proposal by MLB to realign the league’s divisions geographically, resulting in three 10-team divisions (West, Central, East) constructed with the idea of limiting cross-country travel as much as possible.

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Granted, some MLB teams and cities will be very mildly impacted by the aforementioned divisional layout, but all-in-all it appears the set-up does a decent job of containing teams within its region (California and Texas teams in the West division, midwest teams in the Central division, and of course east coast teams in the East Division).

You could argue over a few (like why the Braves and Pirates aren’t flip-flopped), but for the most part, the new divisions should work as intended, if the name of the game is to limit exposure as much as possible.

But what about the competition level within these three divisions? Which MLB teams are benefiting from this new layout and which are being put in a more difficult position?

Well, on Friday Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs provided some insight with his ZiPS projections for our new regional setup, and the results were mostly unsurprising.

*UPDATE: initially the general assumption was that MLB would attempt for a 100-game season in 2020, however, details that emerged Saturday evening report that the league’s forthcoming plan will consist of an 80-game season. Regardless, Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are based on a 100-game slate.

The Central features what appears to potentially be the most competitive, given there doesn’t seem to be anyone team that could stand above the rest. It also features the most teams projected to win at least 50 games, with seven (Braves, Twins, Indians, Brewers, Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals). The West includes the team projected by ZiPS to win the most games in 2020, in the LA Dodgers (61-39 record), though it’s hard to say which is the better division when held up with the East, considering both groups feature dangerous contenders (West: Astros and A’s, East: Nationals and Rays).

If I had to crown a best-division, from top to bottom, it would most likely be the West, given the East also includes the three most poorly positioned MLB teams (Pirates, Marlins, and Orioles). But you could perhaps make a case for any of the three divisions.

The ZiPS projections do a wonderful job of providing us all with an understanding of each division’s competitiveness, but I’d like to go a step further and preview the divisions by its strengths and weaknesses they possess. Maybe the West has better starting pitching, or perhaps the Central the better offense; whatever the case may be. We’ll find out in this series… starting with the West division.

MLB Teams: Previewing the New West

The Wild West

If you had ten guesses I’m sure you could come up with at least the majority of a regionally designed West division. All five California teams are included, both Texas teams and then, of course, the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and the Rockies. They all have the “western” feel to them, though much of the MLB teams in the West division are in totally different places contention-wise:

2020 ZiPS Standings (West)

*Projected record in bold

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 61-39
2. Houston Astros: 55-45
3. Oakland Athletics: 53-47
4. San Diego Padres: 52-48
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: 51-49
6. Los Angeles Angels: 50-50
7. Texas Rangers: 47-53
8. Colorado Rockies: 46-54
9. San Francisco Giants: 45-55
10. Seattle Mariners: 40-60

Strengths/Weaknesses

Overall the West, as a division, seems a bit misleading when it comes to its teams’ lineups, but make no mistake this is a 10-team group chalked full of stars on offense. Four of the ten teams labeled as “West” teams in 2020 ranked within the top-10 in all the majors in runs last season (with the Diamondbacks and Rangers finishing just outside at 11th and 12th).

But it’s the individual players that really stand out. Of the top-10 hitters in 2019 WAR, six of those sluggers reside on teams in this season’s West division, including nine of the top-15… with of course Mike Trout pacing the field. Guys like Alex Bregman (HOU), Cody Bellinger (LAD), Marcus Semien (OAK) and Ketel Marte (ARIZ) are just a few of the big names found in MLB’s newly constructed Wild West, and that’s perhaps what makes this the best of the three divisions.

However — and this can probably be said about all three divisions — other than the top couple of MLB teams, the pitching is rather shallow.

The Dodgers (1st), Astros (2nd), and A’s (6th) make up a three-headed monster in the division, as all three finished 2019 with the major’s top-three overall pitcher ERA, though after that the pitching in the West falls off quite quickly.

The Angels, Giants, Mariners, and Rockies all finished within the last five in the majors in starting rotation WAR last season, as all but one (Colorado) posted a 5+ ERA in 2019. The Halos did a decent job of reinforcing its starting-five, adding Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy over the offseason, but more than likely this is still a below-average staff. San Francisco losing Madison Bumgarner certainly won’t help the Giants’ 2020 season, while the Mariners and Rockies essentially did nothing to help its rotation this past winter (granted, Seattle did add righty Taijuan Walker, and Justus Sheffield is expected to make an impact soon).

MLB Teams: Previewing the New West

Budding starting pitching

The West may enter 2020 with some forgettable numbers from the pitching side last season, but that could all change very quickly given the sheer number of up-and-coming starting pitchers residing in this division (some young and some of the late-bloomer variety).

Each division features its own vital element, and in the West, it’s its potential starting pitching talent. In the next two slides, we’ll look at the West’s rising arms, which in a division already filled with star hitters, should make for an exciting 2020 season (regardless of how long it lasts).

Athletics

• Frankie Montas, RHP
• Jesus Luzardo, LHP 
• A.J. Puk, LHP

Montas perhaps shouldn’t be included, given he’s 27-years-old and has already tallied over 200 innings as a big leaguer (Luzardo has just 12 and Puk has 11.1). However, Montas — a 2017 top-5 prospect in Oakland’s system — had quite the breakout season in 2019, finishing 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA (3.00 FIP) in 96 innings (16 starts) — good for a half-season total of 3 WAR.

Luzardo (who turns 23 in September) and Puk (who just turned 25) both got their first tastes of the majors in 2019… and both held their own just fine. The former made six relief appearances and struck out nearly 35% of batters faced while maintaining a 1.50 ERA (2.63 FIP), and the latter, while not as impressive, turned in a 3.18 ERA (3.39 FIP) with 10 relief appearances of his own.

All three of these pitchers — granted Puk is returning from Tommy John surgery — has a realistic shot at making valuable contributions this coming season.

Dodgers

Dustin May, RHP

A third-round pick back in 2016, May busted onto the scene in LA last season, nearly accruing 1 WAR (0.9) in just 34.2 innings primarily out of the bullpen. Altogether, May made 14 relief appearances and four starts, striking out 8.31 batters per nine while walking just 1.30, concluding his first stint in the big leagues with a 3.63 ERA (2.90 FIP).

May’s on the outside looking in, in terms of the Dodgers’ starting rotation (and it didn’t help when the Dodgers acquired David Price), but with a much shorter season on tap in 2020 there’s no reason to deprive the 6-foot-6 flamethrower of making more starts.

Diamondbacks

• Merrill Kelly, RHP 
• Zac Gallen, RHP 

Kelly, 31-years-old, is no youngster, though the majority of his last five professional seasons have been with the KBO’s SK Wyverns, where he pitched from 2015-18 before landing a two-year, $5.5 million contract with the D’Backs in the winter leading up to the 2019 season. Kelly took that contract and posted a 2-WAR season in Year 1 in 2019, making 32 starts (183.1 innings) and posting a 4.42 ERA (4.51 FIP). According to MLB.com, Kelly is sixth on Arizona’s rotation depth chart, meaning he’s just an injury away from getting another chance to start every fifth day.

Currently seen as the D’Backs’ fifth starter, the 24-year-old Gallen is also coming off a strong 2019 season (his first in the majors) — first with the Marlins (7 starts) and then with Arizona (8 starts). Last season Gallen contributed with 1.6 WAR overall by striking out nearly 11 batters per nine (10.8), showing a strong ability to prevent runs (2.81 ERA) in 80 total innings. This could be his big year in Year 2.

Angels

Griffin Canning, RHP

The Angels’ best shot at finally developing another stud pitcher took a hit this winter when an MRI revealed damage to Canning’s right elbow. Although, as of early last week the former no. 4 Angels’ prospect (per FanGraphs) had been cleared to start throwing bullpen sessions.

The future looks promising for Canning (who will turn 24 this Monday) if his arm does, in fact, hold up, and according to their depth chart, the former second-round pick is slated to slide into the no. 4 spot in the Halos’ 2020 rotation. Canning will look to build off his 1.3-WAR season last year, in which he posted a 4.58 ERA (4.37 FIP) in 17 starts (90.1 innings).