MLB: The pressure is on for most-recently hired mangers

Which newly hired MLB manager has the best chance at sticking around long-term?

One-third of MLB’s 30 teams will be breaking in a new manager in 2020. From teams still in the midst of a long rebuild to those expecting another year of contention, the latest round of MLB’s manager carousel has resulted in quite the shakeup.

Ten new managers is definitely a big deal, although it’s not too outlandish these days. As MLB.com‘s Will Leitch mentioned back in February: only three current managers have been with their respective teams for at least five seasons. Therefore, the Oakland Athletics have the longest-tenured skipper, with Bob Melvin entering his ninth season with the team. The truth is, MLB is far from college football (granted, the latter has had its own share of coaching turnover lately).

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Also, the latest trends in baseball have folks arguing whether MLB managers really matter that much anymore. These days it seems like most on-the-field decisions are based on big data, or tendencies measured from a computer-generated dataset. With so many different advances in technology (like TrackMan, which is soon to be Hawk-Eye), should we really concern ourselves with the guy standing on the top step of each team’s dugout?

Apparently we should, given the average salary for the top-five highest-paid MLB managers has risen over $1 million overall over the last five seasons (according to an annual study done by sportscasting.com).

The average salary of 5 highest-paid managers

• 2014 — $3.450 million
• 2019 — $4.540 million

Heck, that’s a larger increase, in terms of average salary, than MLB players have experienced in that time frame. Since 2014, the average big league salary has jumped by just roughly $670,000 (per a study by Statista last August):

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Average MLB salary (2014-19)

• 2014 — $3.690 million
• 2015 — $3.840 million
• 2016 — $4.380 million
• 2017 — $4.450 million
• 2018 — $4.410 million
• 2019 — $4.360 million

Of course, we’re talking about a pool of just 30 managers (and the highest paid ones at that), compared to 882 total players that were rostered by MLB teams on Opening Day last season. It’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison, especially when considering all of those players making the league-minimum, but the point remains… MLB managers are being paid for more than just handing out the daily lineup card

For some of MLB’s new managers, the pressure is extremely high. Here’s why:

Of the ten teams that have recently hired a new manager, all but three are expected to at least compete for a wild card bid in 2020, meaning most of these new skippers won’t be allowed very much time to get settled into their new gig.

(expected contenders in bold)

• Philadelphia Phillies
• Los Angeles Angels
• Kansas City Royals
• San Francisco Giants
• Chicago Cubs
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• San Diego Padres
• New York Mets
• Boston Red Sox
• Houston Astros

And it’s not like these ten teams have been deprived of success on the field lately. Looking at the group of newly-hired managers, half of them will be taking over teams that have played in at least one of the last four postseasons (some of them with multiple playoff appearances).

Teams with a playoff appearance (since 2016)

• Giants (2016)
• Cubs (2016, 2017, 2018)
• Mets (2016)
• Red Sox (2016, 2017, 2018)
• Astros (2017, 2018, 2019)

So that spurs the original question: when MLB games finally start in 2020, which new manager finds themself in the hottest seat?

In the following slides, I’ve taken all ten managers and grouped them according to how “hot” I believe their seats are on Day 1 of the coming 2020 season — ordered from coolest to hottest. I decided to combine some of the managers into groups, for there are several I believe to be in rather similar situations, though obviously no two jobs are the same.

Let’s face it, these two MLB teams are lucky to have found someone for the job.

Derek Shelton — Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates hired Shelton — a former bench coach for the Minnesota Twins — on November 27, as part of what was essentially an organizational overhaul this past winter. A new manager, GM, and team president all in the span of roughly a month, though that’ll happen when you post the worst season in almost a decade. The Clint Hurdle led Pirates finished just 69-93 in 2019.

So no, Shelton is in no danger at this point. The Buccos have finished with a losing record in three of its last four seasons, they’ve watched traded-away prospects flourish elsewhere (ala Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow), and the team enters the 2020 campaign with the third-smallest payroll in the majors — at roughly $58.2 million.

Frankly, it’s difficult to tell whether or not Pittsburgh is even trying at this point, which led to the MLBPA filing an anti-tanking grievance against them back in early March. Starling Marte is gone (traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks this past offseason), Andrew McCutchen is long gone, and the Pirates biggest offseason addition was a 35-year-old outfielder and career .247 hitter Jarrod Dyson. Shelton’s job should be safe no matter what happens (well, thanks to the Astros… that’s probably not completely true).

Mike Matheny — Kansas City Royals

Basically the frontrunner for the job since the position opened, Matheny joined the Royals on Halloween last year, replacing the retired Ned Yost, who spent ten seasons in Kansas City. Whether Yost called it quits or not, it was probably time, as the Royals managed just 58 and 59 wins in both 2018 and 2019, respectively (the team’s worst two-year performance since 2004-05, when they won 58 and 56, respectively).

Like Shelton and the Pirates above, Matheny enters 2020 with very little to work with. Kansas City’s only free-agent signing this offseason was a one-year, $2.95 million deal for third baseman Maikel Franco (granted, they did trade for a once prized prospect pitcher in Chance Adams). However, a potential 1-2 WAR third baseman and a busted prospect aren’t going to cut it. KC enters the season with the 26th-ranked 2020 payroll, checking in at just $82.5 million.

There are those that could point to Matheny’s time with the Cardinals as a possible wart on his managing reputation, possibly making his seat a bit warmer if the Royals fail to immediately meet expectations going forward. But even with his past apparent issues operating a bullpen, and old-school approach in general, it’s hard to criticize three division titles and a World Series appearance through six in-a-half seasons in St. Louis (2012-18). Matheny may not be the Bobby Cox of Kansas City, but it’s going to take a whole lot of losing for his butt to get even remotely hot.

These two MLB managers have a great track record and need to deliver immediately.

Joe Maddon — Los Angeles Angels

Beating out former Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter, the 66-year-old Maddon won the Halos job this past October to return to the organization in which he spent the first 31 years of his baseball career. Maddon replaces Brad Ausmus as the Angels’ manager, who lasted just one season in LA and finished the 2019 season 72-90.

The only reason I don’t have Maddon in the previous group is simply because the Angels are expected to really start competing from now on. Unlike Derek Shelton and Mike Matheny in the previous slide, more losing for the Halos could very much get Maddon fired. Although the Angels have been busy making improvements this past offseason.

With the sport’s best player (Mike Trout) in the lineup — and not getting any younger, by the way — it has been four seasons since the club surpassed 80 wins, and six since it made a playoff appearance. Owner Arte Moreno finally seems determined to change that, as the Angels signed third baseman Anthony Rendon and starting pitcher Julio Teheran, as well as traded for pitcher Dylan Bundy this past winter — pushing this season’s payroll up by around $15 million to $175.7 million (7th-largest in the majors).

Yes, Maddon’s history with the Angels as well as his incredible reputation as a manager of the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs will keep ice on his seat for a while. I mean, the guy broke a 108-year World Series curse for the Cubs! But Maddon will still be expected to turn things around in LA, even if it takes a couple of seasons.

Joe Girardi — Philadelphia Phillies

Like Maddon above, Girardi earned a three-year contract with his new team, winning the Phillies job on October 24 this past offseason. He replaces Gabe Kapler (now with the San Francisco Giants), who failed to push the Phillies above .500 in his two seasons at the helm (2018-19). After a five-year rebuild, the Phillies have been trying to climb back atop the NL East division but finished just 81-81 in 2019.

I wouldn’t say Girardi’s seat in Philly is as comfortable as Maddon’s in LA, but both the Phillies and Angels had to fire its previous manager after just one or two seasons, and now both have hired a household name. Like the Halos with Maddon, the Phillies would be smart to allow Girardi time to implement his philosophy.

At 55-years-old, Girardi brings a type of experience that’s perhaps unmatched in the managing business. He spent a decade leading the New York Yankees, averaging 91 wins per season during his stint, while also beating the Phillies in the 2009 World Series.

Philadelphia wanted a manager that’s been around the block… well the organization absolutely has that now. Girardi’s boss — Phillies’ GM Matt Klentak — may have a rather warm seat, but it’s going to take an absolutely catastrophic start for Girardi’s chair to heat up.

Here’s a beloved former MLB player filling some very big shoes. How will he do?

David Ross — Chicago Cubs

After Joe Maddon and the Cubs agreed to a mutual separation, Chicago chose Ross over Joe Espada to become the team’s new manager in October. Ross replaces one of the franchises most successful skipper, as Maddon helped lead the Cubs to the postseason in four of his five seasons there, including a World Series win in 2016 and two NL Central division titles. However, Maddon and the Cubbies had a horrific second-half last season and wound up seven games out of first, finishing 84-78 and missing the playoffs in 2019.

Ross, 43-years-old, is beloved by Cubs players, and it’s believed that he was chosen primarily because of his relationships with the guys in the clubhouse. But his leash will no doubt be short, just as it is for any first-time manager.

The biggest question is how patient will the Cubs be. Chicago enters the 2020 season with playoff expectations, as they have ever since Maddon took over as manager in 2015; however even with the major’s third-highest payroll in 2019 ($221.5 million), they failed to capitalize, leading to Maddon’s departure. The scenario is the same this year. The Cubs, once again a top-five spender in the league, are projected to win the division and — before COVID-19 — were given 52% playoff odds by FanGraphs.

The toughest in new proposal? No spitting

I highly doubt the Cubs front office is expecting a World Series appearance right out of the gate, but with guys like Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Wilson Contreras at Ross’s disposal… the Chicago brass would certainly like to see an immediate impact.

Ross has no doubt taken a tough job, but what makes this gig right for him is the fact that the Cubs chose him for his personality — a trait that obviously comes naturally for him. According to NBC Sports, the team’s buzzword for the offseason is accountability, which is something Maddon sometimes lacked due to his ultra-laid back approach. Ross, on the other hand, was widely well known for his tough-love attitude during his playing days, and the Cubs are hoping his style of play will help him succeed as a manager.

Growing pains will be inevitable, and even a contender like the Cubs should allow room for growth. But this isn’t some kind of apprenticeship. Ross will need to learn fast on the job AND provide results. If he doesn’t, he won’t be the first manager canned after just one season… and he certainly wouldn’t be the last. Expect Ross’s seat as the manager to stay pretty warm from here on out. He has to pay his dues first.

These MLB managers are set to fix franchises embroiled in controversy.

Ron Roenicke — Boston Red Sox

Like Beltran earlier, Boston’s Alex Cora couldn’t survive MLB’s Astros investigation. Cora was fired on January 14 and almost exactly a month later Ron Roenicke — formerly the team’s bench coach — was named interim manager. Since Cora’s dismissal wasn’t performance-related, it’s sort of a shame his stint in Boston ended so suddenly. The first-time skipper managed just two seasons but won a World Series in his first year at the helm.

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So let’s go ahead and bring up the elephant in the room, as well as the fact that Roenicke’s “hot seat” isn’t necessarily because it’s HOT in terms of performance issues but because it was just designed that way in the first place; as in, it’s highly doubtful Roenicke stays as the Red Sox manager past 2020, no matter what he does as skipper (well… perhaps save for a World Series).

First of all, the 63-year-old is on a one-year contract, and despite his managing experience with the Milwaukee Brewers (from 2011-15), Roenicke isn’t Boston’s man. The 44-year-old Cora is. And the Red Sox really wouldn’t be out of bounds if they re-hired Cora in 2021. His suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred was for just one season, not to mention the fact that his wrongdoings came while with a different organization.

Don’t think for one second the Red Sox are above such a move. This is a team that traded away perhaps the sport’s second-best player just to avoid a tax hit.

Dusty Baker — Houston Astros

A.J. Hinch was the first to go, along with his pal  — and Houston’s GM — Jeff Luhnow, following the damning results of Manfred and the league’s investigation. And in less than a month’s time, the Astros named Hinch’s replacement — 70-year-old Dusty Baker (making him the oldest manager in the big leagues). Five seasons in Houston and an incredible run helping lead the major’s most advanced and savvy team, Hinch’s 2017 World Series title will forever be tainted, as will every one of his 481 regular-season wins. What a shame.

For Baker — who owns 1,863 victories himself (15th-most all-time by a manager) — this isn’t a matter of proving himself. The only reason his name is found here at the end, among the hottest of hot seats, is simply because this is meant to be a one-year gig for him (he basically admitted as much in Jayston Stark’s story at The Athletic on Monday).

Although, the Astros do hold a club-option for 2021, in case Baker decides he wants to give it another whirl, but don’t get this twisted — this isn’t some audition for the three-time NL Manager of the Year.

Perhaps I saved Baker for last because I believe his hiring was the most interesting one of the offseason.

As a man who got his first job as skipper 27 years ago at the ripe age of 44 — in which he managed the San Francisco Giants to 103 wins in that 1993 season — Baker will now be tasked with working in a game that’s changed a whole lot just since his last stint with the Washington Nationals (2016-17). And it’s not just change that Baker will have to navigate through. Once baseball is finally back so will everyone’s hate for the Astros, meaning each and every game (especially ones on the road) will serve as another reminder of what they did… except for Baker, it won’t be his transgressions or screw-ups, though he’ll still have to defend his club.

So no, the manager’s seat isn’t hot for Baker, at least not in the sense we’re talking about within this exercise. However, of the ten managers hired this past winter his job will most definitely be the most compelling to follow.