MLB Owners clearly want all or nothing for rest of 2020

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It seems, MLB owners seem to be playing an all or nothing game with the 2020 season.

Now more than ever, the 2020 MLB season is at a crossroads. And now more than ever, it is equally clear that MLB owners might not actually want a 2020 season to happen.

For proof of this, fans need to look no farther than the MLB health and safety protocol released nearly two weeks ago, and the player compensation proposal released this week.

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The two documents understandably loom large in any conversation about baseball in recent days. Perhaps in large part because there is no actual baseball being played, but this story would be interesting even if MLB were in the NFL’s enviable position of not having even started their season yet.

However, lurking beneath the fascinating logistics and frustrating economics is the ugly truth that MLB could quickly find themselves painted into one of the darker corners in the game’s history.

The US economy has been decimated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Tens of millions are out of work, possibly facing financial ruin. It’s a fair bet some of those millions are sports fans, and that’s to say nothing of the thousands of stadium workers and hundreds of minor league players that are facing unemployment as well. Heartbreaking stories of loss like these fill up the headlines every day.

All while rich people argue over how rich they will continue to be in 2020.

It’s not what you want, as a baseball fan or baseball professional. Sure, the above sentence might be an unfair simplification. And yes, if you asked me to pick between Team Labor and Team Owner, at the end of the day I’m donning a Team Labor jersey every time. That doesn’t change the reality that the minimum salary for an MLB player is $563,000, and the average salary in the U.S might charitably be 10% of that. As for the billionaire owners, perceptibly dragging their feet on giving us one of our most cherished distractions? Saying public sympathy is nonexistent would be an understatement.

MLB needs a decision ASAP. For owners, it’s about image and the bottom-line. For players, it’s much more practical, both personally and professionally.

Ultimately, I think MLB is hoping for one of two outcomes, but willing to settle for a third. The first and best case scenario is that MLB is the only professional sport playing in 2020, with a close second being that no sports are played at all. If that ship sails though, it seems more than plausible to believe MLB has no interest in the 2020 season taking place at all.

Let’s take these in turn, starting with those dream options for MLB.

For MLB owners and the MLBPA, here’s the case for having a 2020 season.

To make the argument for MLB wanting to be the only professional sports league operating in 2020, it’s all about that sixty-plus page health and safety protocol.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan goes into exhaustive detail on it here, managing to mix in enough esoteric AP Literature references that my wife actually liked the article despite the handicap of being about sports. Being both a lit major and a baseball junkie, I loved the piece, though I think shoehorning Brobdingnagian into the article was a bit of a shameless flex.

Anyway, the point is that the plan outlined by MLB in that report is overwhelmingly complex and intricate, especially considering that baseball involves the least physical contact of any of America’s five professional sports leagues (you’re welcome soccer fans).

Which begs the question: If this plan is either adopted by MLB and the MLBPA or rejected by the MLBPA because it isn’t safe enough, how in the world do fans end up with any other sports taking place?

Does the NFL become a flag football league? Does the NBA just become the world’s most expensive game of HORSE? Will all of those NHL expanded playoff games be decided by one big shootout?

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Maybe enough of baseball’s core components can remain intact with distance measures so that it still largely resembles the game we know. But the no-huddle offense doesn’t mesh with no contact defense, and I’m pretty sure Aaron Gordon has already shown us how much fun a couple of months of a glorified NBA Dunk and Skills Contest will be to watch.

If baseball players get to be that safe, other professional athletes will be fully justified in seeking similar protections. And I’m just not sure those protections translate to any other sport. Yes, NBA and NHL owners have agreed on a plan for what the rest of 2020 will look like. Yes, the NFL has released its schedule and is planning on the season to start as normal. That’s not the same thing as players agreeing to participate in it.

This leaves MLB in the catbird seat as the only live team sport to watch, capitalizing on all that sports thirst revealed by ratings for the NFL Draft and that Jordan doc. Maybe 2020 still isn’t that profitable. However, this would be the most profitable scenario, with the most promise of winning over new fans that will spend future dollars on future tickets and concessions.

(Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

Let’s play devil’s advocate and understand why MLB owners don’t want sports at all.

Or the MLBPA could balk at these precautions, questioning either whether they would be sufficient, or whether they would change the nature of the game to an unacceptable degree.

In which case, maybe just maybe, no sports get played at all.

Other leagues have been saying all the right things in recent days when it comes to the season resuming. They also have the protection of salary caps, smaller rosters, and shorter seasons. That doesn’t change the fact that teams in all sports are looking at extreme financial concerns, even if not to the degree of MLB.

No league wants to be first when it comes to completely cancel the rest of 2020. Every league would likely have a ton of interest in being second or though.

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The primary audience of such an extensive player safety plan was certainly the MLBPA. An argument exists though that a second one could have been athletes and owners in other sports. If sports are collectively canceled, no league picks up any kind of negative stigma going forward.

That wouldn’t be a resounding victory. But it could be the best MLB can hope for. Now for the final path MLB owners could take.

As for why MLB owners wouldn’t want to play during a worldwide pandemic?

As for there being simply no MLB season in 2020, that seems to be the more likely play.

Both the NBA and NHL have plans on the table that would seem to have requisite support. MLB has precious little time remaining to claim the title of first sport to return, and once lost, many of their viewership problems likely return.

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Which just leaves MLB dealing with the reality of uncapped payrolls and vastly reduced revenues. All while competing with a March Madness on steroids version of the NBA

Already, before any of the past few months had transpired, there had been speculation about the real possibility of a strike when the current CBA expires following the 2021 season. At a minimum, there was the expectation of significant changes to the current system.

What goes without question is that how the next few weeks play out will have a dramatic impact on how those 2021 negotiations unfold.

Ownership could well be thinking that players who only collected a fraction of their salaries in 2020 will be somewhat more compliant. That players who were perceived by the paying public as being unwilling to accept moderate riches as opposed to spectacular ones will find themselves cowed and humbled. And that a year out of the spotlight might spark a massive resurgence of interest and ratings in the sport, as opposed to less.

Of course, all of the above is speculative. What is certain is that the MLBPA agreed to accept just 4% of their salary in a canceled season. Plenty of organizations will be coming out ahead if there isn’t a baseball game played until 2021. The marriage of the two could have MLB owners playing the long game, chess over checkers, with as much or more interest in 2021 and beyond as there is in 2020.

Labor is playing its own chess game here as well. You don’t run the risk of only 4% pay in 2020 if you aren’t. Ownership might have one eye on 2022 payrolls. Labor unquestionably has two.

The result is a race to the high ground in the court of public opinion, with both sides seeing some advantage to hanging them up for the rest of the calendar year. Not great news for 2020 prospects.

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Ultimately, what’s come to concern me the most as a baseball fan is the realization that the worst-case scenario for ownership might not be not playing baseball in 2020. The worst-case could be playing one at all.

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