Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: 2020 ALCS simulation

The Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros play a memorable seven-game ALCS.

The simulated 2020 ALCS between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros developed into a classic confrontation. Had it played out the same way in the real world, it would be memorialized as one of the exceptional post-season series of all time.

It was also very much a free swingers ALCS, with no mercy shown to the pitchers. The two teams combined for 91 runs and 156 base hits. Thirty-two of those 156 hits left the ballpark, 10 in the sixth game alone.

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That meant there were also plenty of wasted scoring opportunities. The teams combined to strand 123 runners, an average of 17 and one-half per game.

That was a lot more offensively oriented than the teams’ six-game regular-season series, which went to the Astros 4-2. Houston pitching shut out the Twins twice in those six games, the average score being only 6.5 to 4.5. In the ALCS, the teams averaged 13 runs per game.

Minnesota entered the ALCS with slightly better regular-season performance and thus with home-field advantage. The Twins took the AL Central with a 109-53 record, five games better than Houston’s 104-58. Both teams put away their divisional opponents in four games, meaning both entered the ALCS with largely rested staffs.

The Twins entered the series absent starting pitcher Rich Hill, who had not been available since mid-September due to chronic injuries. Houston manager Dusty Baker, by contrast, fielded a healthy roster for the first time in a month.

With aces primed and at the ready, Baker sent Justin Verlander (18-7, 3.63) to face Minnesota’s Jose Berrios (16-7, 3.00) in the ALCS opener at Target Field.

Game 1 of the 2020 ALCS simulation between the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins.

Berrios came out shaky. After retiring the first two Astro hitters, he lost sight of the plate, walking both Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. That gave Michael Brantley an unearned scoring opportunity, and Brantley cashed it with a line single to right field that scored Bregman.

In the bottom of the first, the Twins resorted to their season-long Plan A – the long ball – to even the score. With two out DH Nelson Cruz took Verlander down the line in left for four bases. But the Houston Astros could blast the ball too; in the second, Berrios grooved a pitch that catcher Martin Maldonado rose into the left-field seats, re-establishing Houston’s 2-1 advantage.

Berrios went wild again in the third, and again it cost him. With two out, he walked Alvarez a second time,  passed Brantley as well, and faced Yuli Gurriel with two runners on. Gurriel shot a hit into right that allowed Alvarez to score the run that increased Houston’s lead to 3-1.

Alvarez got a third shot at Berrios in the Houston fifth, and this time the Twins pitcher threw him a strike. Big mistake: Alvarez deposited it over the wall in right, increasing Houston’s lead to 4-1. Berrios was gone by the seventh, but the Astros tied into young left-hander Devin Smeltzer for the fifth run on George Springer’s double, another base on balls and Bregman’s RBI single.

Verlander, meanwhile, was cruising. He set down the Twins on a single hit between the second and sixth innings. In the home half of the seventh, however, Minnesota’s offensive arsenal geared up. With two out Mitch Garver blasted a home run deep into the left-field seats, and Jorge Polanco did the same, his leaving play in right.

That brought the Twins back within two runs, 5-3, and prompted Baker to lift Verlander in favor of right-hander Joe Biagini.  When both teams added a run in the eighth, the Astros sent Ryan Pressly out in the ninth in search of his 10th save. He got it – nervously  — allowing a leadoff double to Garver before retiring Polanco, Miguel Sano, and Willians Astudillo.

Houston               111    010    110    — 6 11  0

Minnesota          100     000    210    — 4   6  0

W: Verlander. L: Berrios. S: Pressly.

For the Minnesota Twins, game two of the 2020 ALCS was all Jake’s.

The second ALCS game matchup of Zack Greinke versus Jake Odorizzi stacked up every bit as strong as the Verlander-Berrios pairing had appeared. Greinke (20-4, 2.68) set his name at or near the top of most of the league pitching statistics, that record including a pair of victories against the Twins. He beat them 13-8 June 24, then on July 31 shut out Minnesota 7-0 on six hits.

Odorizzi (17-7, 4.44) could not claim similar success against the Astros. His only 2020 start against them, on June 22, resulted in a 7-3 loss. And like Berrios, he too came out shaky, walking two of the first three Astros he faced. Unlike Berrios, though, Odorizzi steadied, fanning Michael Brantley and getting Yordan Alvarez on an infield bouncer.

Then the Twins went to work settling accounts with Greinke. Luis Arraez opened the bottom of the first with a double into the right-center field gap, and one out later Cruz sent a rocket down the left-field line for an RBI double. In the third, Marwin Gonzalez drove Minnesota’s third extra-base hit past Springer into center, Arraez’s single him to third, and Polanco doubled them both across with a shot to the wall in left. Two outs later Max Kepler’s base hit scored Polanco with the Twins’ fourth run.

The big explosion came in the fifth, and the Astros aided it. Shortstop Carlos Correa muffed an Arraez ground ball for an error, and Polanco took full advantage, slamming a home run off of the façade of the second level in right-center.

That finished Greinke, but it did not finish the Twins. Josh James took over and walked Cruz, surrendered an infield hit to Donaldson, and walked Kepler, loading the bases for Garver. He drove the game’s fifth double to the wall in center, scoring Cruz and Donaldson. One out later, Byron Buxton dropped a single into right, scoring Kepler with the inning’s fifth run.

Buxton was erased on a failed steal attempt, but that opened the door for Gonzalez, who sent Garver across on the Twins’ sixth extra-base hit.

As Verlander had done one day earlier, Odorizzi merely basked in the run support. He did surrender a third-inning home run to Josh Reddick but otherwise silenced the Astros on just two hits through the seventh inning. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli lifted him after eight, there being no further reason to tax him, and Sergio Romo allowed a consolation run in the ninth that made the final only marginally more respectable.

Polanco’s three hits, accounting for four RBIs, led the 15-hit offense.

Houston               001    000    001    — 2    6  1

Minnesota          103     060    00      — 1015  0

W: Odorizzi. L: Greinke.

Game 3 of the ALCS was a marathon for the Houston Astros.

The deadlocked ALCS moved to Houston’s Minute Maid Field, but it would have been impossible to anticipate what would unfold next. The Astros sent Brad Peacock (16-5, 3.56) against Twins starter Kenta Maeda 13-8, 4.14).

Both would pitch creditably, but neither would be around for anything approaching the finish.

The Astros drew first blood on Altuve’s first-inning home run into the Crawford boxes. Minnesota got to Peacock for a pair of third-inning runs on hits by Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco. They increased their lead to 3-1 in the fifth on hits by Eddie Rosario, Ehrie Adrianza, and Buxton, but Houston made it 3-2 in the inning’s bottom half when Reddick homered.

In the bottom of the seventh, Altuve’s double knocked Maeda out of the game, and Bregman’s base hit off Smeltzer evened the score at 3-3.

And there the matter sat virtually indefinitely. A Garver error opened the door for the Astros in the eighth, but they could do nothing with it. In the 10th, Adrianza walked, stole second and took third on Buxton’s base hit. But Pressly retired the next three Twins hitters, Arraez, Polanco and Donaldson, without so much as a weak pop up to escape unscathed.

The Twins mounted their biggest threat in the 12th, this time off Houston’s fourth pitcher, Austin Pruitt. Arraez stroked a one-out single to right and advanced to third base on Polanco’s single to center. Rogers walked Donaldson, filling the bases and bringing up Cruz, who sent a lazy fly ball to medium center.

With above-average speed, Arraez tagged up and decided to try to score. Springer would have none of it; he pegged out the runner with a solid throw to Maldonado to maintain the 3-3 tie.

Finally, in the top of the 14th, the Twins broke through against James, Houston’s fifth pitcher. With two out, Polanco parachuted a base hit into center, then Donaldson went the other way with a fastball, dropping it on the chalk line for a two-base hit. Polanco came all the way around to score.

Three outs away from a critical win, the Twins turned their fate over to their sixth pitcher, Trevor May. But Reddick touched May for a base hit, Springer walked and one out later Alvarez re-knotted the game at 4-4 with a single to right.

That hit also put Springer in scoring position with the winning run, but May got Bregman to pop up then lucked out when Brantley’s screaming liner went right into Arraez’s glove t second for the third out.

The Twins threatened yet again off James in the 15th inning. With one out, Eddie Rosario doubled and took third on Adrianza’s infield hit. But James fanned Buxton and got Arraez on a roller to short.

The issue was only resolved in the bottom of the 16th. After May struck out Reddick, Springer sent everybody home with a cannon shot into the right-field seats. The 16-inning affair exhausted both teams’ bullpens and left more than a bit of frustration on the Twins’ side of the field. They had, after all, stranded 17 baserunners. They also now trailed in the ALCS 2-1.

Minnesota          002    010     000    000    010    0 – 4  16  1

Houston             100     010    100     000    010    1 – 5  15  1

W: James. L: May.

In Game 5 of the ALCS, four bombs just weren’t enough for the Houston Astros.

The Astros turned to their Game 1 starter, Verlander, for the pivotal fifth game. But Twins manager Rocco Baldelli shied away from Berrios, who had been hit hard in that first ALCS start, preferring to lean on young left-hander Devin Smeltzer (11-7, 4.82).

Smeltzer may have lacked a playoff pedigree, but it was Verlander who took the early damage. In the top of the first inning, Bregman muffed Polanco’s one-out groundball and Garver followed with a hit into the hole that Correa knocked down but could make no play on.

Donaldson, the American League regular season RBI leader, had excelled all season in opportunities of this sort. He got a high breaking ball and fired it over the Crawfords in left for a three-run bomb that gave the Twins a nice early lead.

In this offensive atmosphere, it would not, however, be enough. Michael Brantley homered with two out in the second, Josh Reddick opened the third with another home run, and the Astros were back within one. In the fourth, Smeltzer walked Brantley and set the stage for Correa, who slammed his team’s third home run over the wall in left.

But that home run only moved the Astros within a run because the Twins had tapped Verlander for two more in the top of the inning. They came home on catcher Alex Avila’s leg triple into the right-field corner with Kepler and Buxton on the bases. In the fifth, Polanco also tripled and he scored when Bregman misplayed Garver’s ground ball into an error.

The Twins finally dispatched Verlander when Kepler opened the seventh with a base on balls. But the relief corps was not helpful. Joe Biagini allowed a base hit, then walked Buxton and Avila to force Kepler home and make the score 7-4.

Smeltzer was long gone by then, but the Twins bullpen performed admirably in his absence. Tyler Clippard, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers combined to hold the Astros scoreless on one hit, Reddick’s seventh-inning home run. It was the Astros’ fourth home of the game, but it only brought them within two runs and they never got closer.

In fact, the Astros only collected three hits all game which did not leave the field. For the first time, Minnesota held the ALCS lead at three games to two….and they were going home for Game 6.

Minnesota          300    210    100    — 711  0

Houston              011    200    100    — 5  7  2

W: Clippard. L: Verlander. S: Rogers.

In game 6 of the ALCS, the Houston Astros slaughter the Minnesota Twins.

On the road again and one game from elimination, the Houston Astros turned to their 20-game winner, Greinke, for the sixth ALCS game.  With the luxury of a series lead, Baldelli again passed on Berrios and gave the ball instead to Kenta Maeda, the starter in that 16-inning game 3 defeat.

It’s unlikely that anybody on Baldelli’s staff could have dealt with the Astros on this date. The visitors lit up Target field to the tune of 20 hits – an amazing eight of them home runs – in an 18-7 destruction of the hopes of Twins fans who had come to see a clincher.

Houston steadily built a lead over the first four innings thanks to home runs by Brantley, Yuli Gurriel. Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. It was already 6-1 after four innings.

In the fifth, the visitors – having already finished off Maeda – put the game on ice. With one out, Brantley singled, Alvarez reached on a Polanco error at short, and Correa hit Houston’s fifth home run. A single, a walk, and two more doubles scored three more runs and brought up Bregman, who hit homer No. 6 into the center-field seats.

The right-run inning put the Astros up by a 14-1 count. Correa added another two-run home run in the eighth and Springer delivered one of his own in the ninth, causing the Twins final six runs to pass by largely unnoticed.

Houston              021    380    022   — 18  20  0

Minnesota          000    102    400   —    7  12  1

W: Greinke. L: Maeda

Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler’s decisive hit in Game 7 of the ALCS.

With the series outcome hinging on a final seventh game, Houston manager Dusty Baker turned to his one rested veteran arm, third game starter Brad Peacock. Baldelli went with Jake Odorizzi, the game 2 winner.

Early on, Odorizzi made Baldelli look like a genius. He retired the first 11 Houston Astros he faced, three on strikes before Bregman caught up to a waist-high fastball and put it in the fourth row in left field.

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But that only closed the gap because by then the Twins had touched Peacock for three runs. Luis Arraez opened the bottom of the first with a triple high off the wall in center, scoring on Garver’s single. In the third, Buxton and Arraez both singled and scored on Garver’s double down the left-field line.

The score was still 3-1 when the tension ratcheted up in the sixth. Springer opened the Houston half with a base hit, taking second on Altuve’s infield single. When Odorizzi walked Bregman and then walked Gurriel to force in a run, Baldelli decided he’s seen enough. He summoned Clippard, who retired Brantley on a ground ball deep enough for Altuve to score the tying run.

Peacock lasted only long enough to surrender the lead again. In the bottom half, he walked Donaldson and Adrianza, then surrendered a base hit to Rosario that sent Donaldson home. That made it 4-3 Minnesota.

With the fate of the series firmly in the hands of both bullpens, the Twins set about preserving their thin advantage. In the top of the seventh, Clippard allowed a leadoff hit to Correa and a one-out double into the left-field gap by Martin Maldonado. But Kepler cut the ball off in time to cut down Correa trying to score the tying run.

Rogers, Minnesota’s ace closer, came on in the top of the eighth and set the Astros down in order. In the ninth, however, Brantley sent a two-base hit screaming past Buxton in center field. Aledmys Diaz moved Brantley over and Correa got him home with a fly ball deep enough to left to accomplish the task.

Against Houston closer Pressly, the Twins did nothing in the ninth, sending the deciding game into extra innings.

In the 10th,  the Astros made their move. Maldonado sent a double past Rosario in right, Springer walked, and a Rogers wild pitch sent the go-ahead run across while moving Springer into scoring position. Two outs later, Gurriel cashed that insurance run, giving Houston a 6-4 lead with three outs to get.

Pressly, however, was not up to getting them. After retiring Buxton on a routine fly ball, he walked Arraez, then grooved a pitch to Polanco, who made himself a local hero. When the shot settled into the throng beyond the right-field seats, Minnesota had re-tied the game 6-6.

Both teams went down in order in the 11th. In the 12th, Biagini allowed a one-out single to Buxton and walked Arraez before giving way to Jose Urquidy. That gave Polanco a chance to certify his status as a local hero, but Urquidy whiffed him. When he also got Donaldson on strikes, the game moved into the 13th.

It proved to be a lucky inning for the home team. After Zach Littell, Minnesota’s fifth pitcher retired the Astros in order, Urquidy opened the bottom of the 13th by fanning his third consecutive batter, Donaldson. He never got a second out. Kepler worked the count to 2-1, sat on a fastball, got it, and propelled it over the wall in center for the walk-off homer that made the Twins American League champions.

Houston               000   102    001    200    0    —   6  10  0

Minnesota          102    001    000    200    1    —   7  10  0

W: Littell. L: Urquidy.

Polanco, whose 10th inning home run in the seventh game rescued the Twins from elimination, was voted the ALCS Most Valuable Player. He batted 14-for-35 (.400) in the seven games with three home runs and 11 RBIs.