Pittsburgh Pirates: Looking into whether or not the 2023 start is legitimate

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Apr 25, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Johan Oviedo (24) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Strong starting pitching

The Pirates rotation has also looked strong to start the season. Led by Mitch Keller (3.64 ERA) and Johan Oviedo (3.03 ERA), the starters have combined for a 3.92 ERA early on. Keller and Oviedo are joined by youngster Roansy Contreras (3.58 ERA), veteran Vince Velasquez (3.76 ERA), and veteran’s veteran Rich Hill (4.85 ERA).

Keller and Oviedo should be reliable arms going forward barring injury. Keller finished last season with a 3.94 ERA, pitching especially well through the summer of 2022. There is a bit of reason for concern, however, as his current 21.7% hard-hit percentage is in the top 4% in the majors, way ahead of his previous career high, and he has a 4.17 expected ERA. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Keller have a career-best season at age 27, that hard-hit rate will likely regress to the 30-35% range.

On the other hand, the Pirates might have a legitimate breakout in Oviedo. His 3.03 ERA is actually higher than his 2.71 expected ERA, and none of his Statcast numbers suggest a major regression is coming. His lack of a track record as a starting pitcher in the majors raises concerns about his ability to sustain this over the course of a season, but Oviedo should be one to watch going forward.

Like Oviedo, Contreras is another young arm that could be breaking out for the Pirates. His last start saw him shoutout the Dodgers over 6.0 innings, lowering his ERA to 3.58. While Statcast hasn’t updated after this past start (at the time of this writing), he went into it with a 35.9% hard-hit percentage, 10% lower than last season. While his strikeout rate has gone down every year in the majors, this may be attributed to him pitching to contact rather than trying to strike everybody out.

In Velasquez and Hill, you kind of know what you’re going to get. We have years of data to go off of on each, and its hard to see either of them having any sort of breakout at this point. If they can both eat up innings while keeping their ERAs in the 4-5 range, they could help the Pirates in having an above-average starting rotation in 2023.

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