Blake Snell somehow remains underrated, but he's going to get PAID in MLB free agency

We’ve taken a look at most of the top pitchers in free agency already this offseason, and each of them present some combination of an elite track record, a very high price tag, and the daunting proposition of paying a pitcher deep into his 30s.

Blake Snell is no different. He’s a 32-year-old southpaw with two Cy Young awards to his name. In all three of his career stops, he’s been a well-above-average pitcher.

Snell’s career has been up-and-down to this point, with absurd highs (one of only seven pitchers to have won a Cy Young in both leagues), and middling lows (4.06 ERA in 285 ⅔ innings between 2019-21). However, he’s found the next gear over the past three seasons, with a 2.82 ERA (2.98 FIP) in 412.0 innings between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants.

His 32.5% strikeout rate is among the top marks in the league in that window, as is his .191 batting average against. He’s also done a significantly better job in recent years in limiting the long ball, and his home run percentage (e.g., percentage of all plate appearances in which he allowed a homer) was down to a career-low 1.4% mark in 2024. Though he obviously benefited from playing in spacious Oracle Park, his home run rates were also down across the board in his final few seasons in San Diego.

Snell threw his four-seam fastball a whopping 46% of the time last year, utilizing a changeup, curveball, and slider for the other half of his arsenal. Considering he’s also made 19 or more starts in every non-pandemic season of his career (and has eclipsed 100+ innings in seven consecutive full seasons), he looks the part as the perfect addition for any team in need of a No. 1 starter.

In addition, even if his profile isn’t without blemishes, unlike other free agent aces—namely, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried—Snell doesn’t come attached to the qualifying offer this offseason, by virtue of having declined it following the 2023 season.

Snell’s market is, unsurprisingly, moving quickly. He reportedly met with the Red Sox and Dodgers this week, and remains in talks with the incumbent Giants and new President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey. After being frozen out of the top-end of the market last offseason, Snell is surely looking to sign a lucrative contract early this winter, and by all accounts, the Red Sox in particular appear to be the most aggressive bidder for his services.

Other teams with top-of-the-rotation needs—the Orioles (if they lose Burnes), the Mets, and the Padres (sans Joe Musgrove), to name a few—will also have a say in the matter. Snell could feasibly lock up a contract in the same range as Carlos Rodón did a few years back (six years, $160 million), which will push smaller-market pursuers to the periphery of the discussion.

As the eldest ace on the free agent market, Snell is going to be a unique case among teams looking for a big splash. The size of his contract should be a temperature check on how high teams are willing to go on pitchers this offseason, as well as who is in the market for pitchers in his echelon.

Snell will sign a nine-figure deal soon; in fact, the only thing that would surprise at this point is if he isn't the first frontline starter to sign.

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