MLB free agent breakdown: Lefty Max Fried is an Ace and will be paid like it

Max Fried has been the ace of the Atlanta Braves for the last half-decade. After posting a 3.07 ERA in 884 1/3 innings since debuting in 2017, someone is going to pony up for his services this offseason.

Exactly how large the contract he gets is in question. Some pundits have projected deals as long as seven years, with annual salary numbers in the $25-$30 million range being floated. Fried probably won't crack the $200 million barrier—not with Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Roki Sasaki clogging up the free agent waters, not to mention cheaper alternatives like Garret Crochet on the trade market—but something along the lines of what Jon Lester got in 2014 (six years, $155 million) is probably the starting point in negotiations.

Lester's deal is probably a good place to start in terms of suitors, as the team that wrangled in that lefty will certainly be in Fried's market a decade later. Armed with two southpaws already atop the rotation (Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga), the Chicago Cubs could make a loud statement to the rest of the National League that they're ready to emerge from this most recent rebuild by signing Fried. President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer has remained cautious in his free agent expenditures, though, and the red marks on Fried's résumé may cause him to hesitate.

Fried does come with a few flaws, including a notable injury history that cost him large chunks of the 2018 and 2023 seasons. His forearm issues from last year are still a concern, especially since he'll be 31 on Opening Day 2025, but his 174.1 inning sample in 2024 proves that Fried is still durable when healthy as he looks for a long-term contract.

Over his career, Fried has earned a workhorse label, pitching 165+ innings in every season since 2019 (besides 2023 due to injury, and 2020 due to the pandemic-shortened schedule). He's also thrown six complete games and four shutouts in that time. Pair his longevity in games with a career 140 ERA+, 23.9% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, and huge 53.7% groundball rate (including a career-high 58.2% figure this past season), and you have the profile of a pitcher that should both age gracefully and remain dominant when handed the ball.

Of course, every team could use a pitcher of Fried's caliber, though only certain teams have the marriage of roster need and payroll flexibility to make the move. The incumbent Braves are obviously a favorite to retain Fried, as they need a reliable pitcher to pair with NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale.

The entire AL East appears to be in on Fried, though the Rays (payroll limitations) and Yankees (focused on Juan Soto sweepstakes) are probably more on the periphery of the discussion. The Orioles would only make sense for Fried if they lose Burnes in free agency, and the Blue Jays may be hesitant to add a third $100 million, 30-something-year-old pitcher to their rotation (José Berrios, Kevin Gausman).

The Red Sox are perhaps the best fit of any team in baseball, as they have a serious need for a staff ace. The team did have four starters eclipse 145 innings pitched in 2024, though only one (Tanner Houck) had an ERA below 4.00. Houck and Kutter Crawford were also the only two starters on the team with more than 12 quality starts last year; Fried had 16.

Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets shouldn't be counted out of any race for any star free agent. However, like the Yankees, they may find themselves too preoccupied with their pursuits of Soto and Sasaki to make a full push for Fried. Signing him away from the division rival Braves, though, would be a heck of a robbery by the Mets this winter if they pulled it off.

Notably, Fried has struggled in the postseason (5.10 ERA in 67.0 innings), including a disastrous start against the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of this year's NL Wild Card Series. Still, his ability to pitch deep into games while remaining effective is a skill that’s rapidly disappearing from the current zeitgeist. Teams will put a premium on it in free agency, even if he isn't going to take the ball in Game 1 of every postseason series.

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