Though Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles back in late January, the ace right-hander is well known as one of the figureheads of the most recent iterations of the always-solid Milwaukee Brewers. He responded well to his new digs, accumulating 3.4 WAR and a 2.92 ERA in 194 1/3 innings, earning the start for the American League in the All-Star Game (his fourth consecutive appearance at the Midsummer Classic). The Orioles failed to advance past the Wild Card round of the playoffs, prematurely ending Burnes’s tenure in Maryland, assuming the notoriously frugal O’s don’t loosen their purse strings for a payday that will certainly reach well into nine figures.
Now that Gerrit Cole is officially back with the Yankees, Burnes is probably the best pitcher who is expected to hit the free agent market this winter, though other former Cy Young winners—namely, Shane Bieber and Blake Snell—and other pitchers who’ve had strong performances in recent years (Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi) round out a stronger-than-usual crop of starters. If a team is in the market for an ace, or a bounce-back candidate with a strong track record, or even just a plain old “high-risk, high-reward” play, this year’s crop of free-agent hurlers is a good place to go window-shopping.
Still, his status as a preeminent ace in today's game will net him a contract that probably reaches $200 million, especially when factoring in his track record in the postseason.
Corbin Burnes puts on a stellar performance in front of the hometown crowd 👏 #Postseason pic.twitter.com/a8gNpTyZA0
— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2024
It’s worth noting that for all his recent success, Burnes isn’t the same pitcher who won the Cy Young award in 2021. His durability since then has been beyond impressive (three straight seasons of 190+ innings), but his strikeout rate (35.6% in 2021, 23.1% in 2024), walk rate (5.2% to 6.1%), home run rate (1.1% to 2.8%), and average exit velocity allowed (84.9 MPH to 87.1 MPH) have all taken a turn for the worse. To be sure, his numbers from this season are all still excellent, but he’s more touchable now than when he could make a serious claim as the “best pitcher in the world”. For reference, his 3.55 FIP this past season was more than double the league-leading mark he posted in 2021 (1.63).
Who are the main suitors for Burnes?
The Orioles, even with their payroll limitations, should remain on the periphery of the Burnes free agency saga. General manager Mike Elias already made claims that the team will increase its spending in 2025, which could be a prelude to a splurge on Burnes. After the team had to deal with injury after injury in the rotation during last year's playoff push, the Orioles will surely want to retain their most reliable starter.
The Chicago Cubs should also be seen as a well-fitted suitor, and they have firsthand knowledge of how dominant Burnes can be after he wreaked havoc on the NL Central for half of a decade. They have a need atop their rotation in front of Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, and general manager Jed Hoyer is fighting for his job this offseason. If they're unwilling to get involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, Burnes would be one hell of a consolation prize on the North Side of Chicago.
The Boston Red Sox and New York Mets are perhaps the most obvious fits for Burnes, what with their deep pockets and extreme need for a proven ace. Mets owner Steve Cohen will probably be too wrapped up with Soto to outbid the market for Burnes, though they have more money to spend than anyone. Meanwhile, the BoSox could shore up their biggest roster need and weaken a top contender in the division at the same time by acquiring the righty.
Then, there are other teams with a need for a surefire pitcher in the rotation, including the Detroit Tigers, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Toronto Blue Jays. The former two franchises have handed out at least one contract in excess of $200 million before, and the Blue Jays were playing in Shohei Ohtani waters just last offseason. They shouldn't be counted out, even if Burnes has his sights set on a bigger market.
It's odd to see a former Cy Young winner have something of a lowkey presence in free agency, though that's just what happens when you're sharing the market with a generational superstar like Soto. Don't be fooled, though: any team that gets Burnes this winter will be demonstrably better for it, even if it costs $200 million over the next seven years.