5. Jurickson Profar, OF, Atlanta Braves, ADP: 157
Jurickson Profar is perhaps the biggest wild card entering the 2025 season. Based off of last year alone, Profar should be higher up on most draft boards. But once again, track record plays a big role here.
2024, Profar's age-31 season, was undoubtedly a career year for the left fielder. While it's encouraging for Profar and any fans that have tracked his career since he debuted in 2012, there's nothing about the rest of his career that suggests he can sustain this level of success.
Last year was just the second time in his 11-year career that Profar posted a slugging percentage north of .450, while he has more seasons with a sub-.400 SLG than seasons with a SLG over .400.
All of Profar's power metrics in 2024 were career bests, but as he is entering his age-32 season, I have a hard time believing those numbers are going to get even better which suggests this past season was Profar's ceiling. Most projection systems agree with me. Among the eight main projection systems (accessible through Fangraphs), Steamer gives him the highest OPS at just .758 compared to his .839 OPS in 2024.
While I don't think Profar returns to his 2024 form, his ability to get on base does make his bat a fairly safe option. He has always been a high walk and low strikeout hitter, so while there's no way to forecast what 2025 holds for him with any confidence, I wouldn't discourage anyone from taking a flier on him in the later rounds of a draft.