Roki Sasaki
The next Japanese icon, young ace pitcher Roki Sasaki, was recently posted and is now available to MLB teams. Though his potential is sky-high, since he is only 23 he is subject to MLB’s international amateur free agent rules. This means he is forfeiting the possibility of receiving a Yamamoto-esque contract and will spend the next six years proceeding through MLB’s minimum pay and arbitration system just like any other incoming rookie.
This would make him a true MLB free agent after the 2030 season, when he will be 29. As a starting pitcher already with longevity concerns, it is difficult to imagine him getting a contract that winter of the magnitude we’re talking about. Of course, he could get a huge extension before that, but without teams bidding against each other, it is unlikely for the terms to go that high.
With the unique complications in his free agency, the most likely way Sasaki sees $700 million would be through an under-the-table agreement with whichever team signs him this offseason. Though the initial signing will be limited to the $5-8 million available in allocated international signing bonuses, there would be nothing stopping his new team from following that up with a luxurious extension.
Of course, this would open up a can of worms that both MLB and NPB would like to keep sealed. It would expose a clear loophole in international free agency, and the assumption of nefarious negotiations would be tough to deny. If Sasaki gets an extension from his signing team, it is likely to be closer to 2030 than today — presumably for far less money.