Overrated: Teoscar Hernandez
Last winter, a gloomy Seattle past hung over the market of Teoscar Hernandez, who initially sought a multi-year contract but settled on a prove-it deal with the Dodgers. That could not have gone much better, as he set a career high in home runs (33) and bWAR (4.3). He also won the Home Run Derby, was a key force in a World Series-winning lineup, and was rewarded with a three-year contract from those Dodgers.
However, several signs point to his 2024 success being heavily influenced by luck, and regression may be on the way.
In the era of chasing launch angles, Hernandez surprisingly does not lift the ball nearly as often as his fellow home run hitters. To hit all of those 33 homers in 2024, he required an extreme home run per fly ball rate. Granted, Dodger Stadium is a home run-friendly ballpark, so he may continue to benefit in Los Angeles, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see his HR/FB% regress a bit.
His xwOBA came in slightly under his wOBA, suggesting some luck there as well. His .344 BABIP was also noticeably high, but was actually exactly the same as his BABIP from 2020 to 2023. He is a right-handed groundball hitter with surprising speed, so it may be somewhat sustainable, but it was the highest in baseball during that stretch. At 32, he’s not likely to remain at the top of that leaderboard.
A regression to the mean in any of these areas would unfortunately put more pressure on his concerning strikeout totals, which are backed up by his whiff rate. He also cannot lean on his defense, where he has generally been below average by all metrics except UZR for most of his career.
The Dodgers, of all teams, could handle a disappointing contract or two. Time will tell if Hernandez’s second will live up to his first.