Roki Sasaki elects Ohtani route, becomes most coveted free agent in baseball

When Yoshinobu Yamamoto became a free agent last year (at 25 years old), he was instantly recognized as the game's premier available talent, attracting the attention of every big-market club. He would sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a 12-year, $325 million contract that remains the high-water mark for all pitchers.

When Shohei Ohtani was made available via the international posting system in 2017 (at age 23), he garnered interest from every team in the sport. Eventually, he would choose to sign a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Angels, which guaranteed him only $2,315,000 in signing bonus money.

Now, the latest Japanese superstar is coming to America, and he has elected to follow in Ohtani's footsteps. Per his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, Roki Sasaki will be posted in the coming months.

Sasaki first became a household name while dominating the 2023 World Baseball Classic at 21 years old. He struck out 11 hitters in just 7 2/3 innings, forming an unstoppable triumvirate of aces with Yamamoto and Ohtani that would pave the way to Japan's third WBC title.

He's got a fastball that routinely reaches triple digits, and a splitter that can only be classified as "nasty". In recent years, he's added a slider that is comparable to that of his idol, Yu Darvish. Suffice to say, he's got some of the best "stuff" in the world, and it won't take more than a few months in the majors before he establishes himself as one of the MLB's best pitchers.

Because no player is perfect, there are injury concerns with Sasaki, including a torn oblique and lingering right arm soreness that cost him a number of starts in 2024. His career high in innings is 129 1/3 (set back in 2022), and he reached 111.0 this year across 18 starts.

In total, his Nippon Professional Baseball résumé reads like that of a video game stat line: 29-15 record, 2.10 ERA, 505 strikeouts, 88 walks, all in 394 2/3 innings in 64 starts over four seasons.

Sasaki will be dominant, and cheap

What's fascinating about the Marines' decision to post Sasaki now is the financial ramifications of doing so. Because he's not yet 25 years old, the Japanese star can only sign a minor league deal this offseason. Depending on when he's posted, Sasaki will be eligible for a signing bonus between roughly $5-$7 million, with smaller market teams having a larger pool of international bonus money available to them.

Had Sasaki and the Marines waited until 2026 to access the posting system, the pitcher could have received a contract in excess of $400 million, with the Marines reaping the rewards of the associated 20% posting fee. Just last year, the Orix Blue Wave were given more than $50 million as part of the Yamamoto signing.

Nevertheless, Sasaki now fits the budget of every major league team. Though he'll join an organization on a minor league pact, he'll be added to a major league roster before spring training is through. Of course, this means that he'll be subject to rookie contracts and arbitration status over the next six years, giving any team that signs him cheap, long-term control over one of the best arms in the world.

It's easy to question the wisdom of Sasaki seeking posting just a few years out from a life-changing payday, but Ohtani did the same thing and was rewarded with the largest sports player contract of all time. If the 23-year-old fireballer believes in his talents, he could hit MLB free agency at 29 with a chance to secure a contract in excess of $500 million.

For all the talk about the Juan Soto sweepstakes, or how Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher on the market, Sasaki has suddenly become the biggest prize of the offseason. He may not be able to hit like Soto, but he can throw like Ohtani, all for a fraction of the price.

It isn't everyday a team can land a generational ace for the same cost as Hunter Renfroe's player option. No one should be counted out as each team makes its pitch to Sasaki... even if the Dodgers are the heavy favorites again.

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