The St. Louis Cardinals have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to players this winter, and that's all but due to the fact that they are preparing for their first true rebuild since Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina were in their prime
Nolan Arenado is a known asset on the trade block, but Sonny Gray could fetch the highest price of anyone on the roster. It wouldn't be surprising to see even more veterans hit the rumor mill in the coming months.
Of course, this is pretty novel territory for a franchise that ranks second all-time in World Series championships. Is this really the only path forward for the Cardinals?
The St. Louis Cardinals can only move forward by taking a step back
After a last-place finish in 2023, the Cardinals somewhat rebounded to finish second in the NL Central with an 83-79 record in 2024. That 2023 result was the first time since 1990 that they finished as the bottom-feeder in their division, and only the second time since the turn of the century that they finished fourth or worse.
In fact, since 2000, the Cardinals have finished first in the NL Central 12 times. In that same span, they've appeared in four World Series, winning two. That means that over the last quarter-century, the team has won the World Series as many times as it has finished outside the top three in the division.
That is a run of mind-boggling success that was keyed by incredible coaching and unmatched stability in the front office. Well, that and having three of the greatest players ever at their respective positions.
Albert, Yadi, and Waino are taken out of the game together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/y2MgilItse
— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2022
Albert Pujols was the best of the bunch, and the future Hall of Famer was a peerless great in his prime. In parts of 12 seasons in St. Louis, the first baseman slashed an inhuman .326/.417/.614 (166 wRC+) and accrued 88.7 bWAR.
Yadier Molina is considered one of the greatest defensive catchers ever, totaling 10 All-Star appearances and nine Gold Gloves in 19 seasons, all with the Cardinals.
And Adam Wainwright, who had four top-three Cy Young finishes in a six-season span from 2009-14, enjoyed 18 long seasons in St. Louis, racking up 40.9 bWAR across 2,668 1/3 innings.
In their respective primes, that triumvirate of stars was unstoppable. Wainwright posted four seasons of 6.0+ WAR, Molina had two such seasons, and Pujols crossed that threshold an unthinkable nine times, including leading the NL in WAR in every season from 2005-10.
In 2024, the Cardinals' leaders in WAR were Masyn Winn (4.9 WAR), Willson Contreras (3.0 WAR), and Brendan Donovan (2.6 WAR). Using FanGraphs' fWAR, no one on the team was even worth 4.0 WAR.
And that's why the Cardinals need to rebuild. The stars just aren't aligned (pun intended) for the team to be a consistent contender year in and year out.
Wynn, the team's 22-year-old starting shortstop, is a foundational piece, and catcher Iván Herrera is a break out candidate for the 2025 season. Beyond that, young talent is limited. The farm system, which ranks towards the middle of the pack right now, simply isn't equipped with the impact talent it usually is.
Trading Arenado and Gray would be a good place to start as the team restocks its cupboards, but this can't be a halfway rebuild. With Chaim Bloom set to step in as the team's general manager following the upcoming season, there needs to be a full committment to a better future in St. Louis, rather than pushing for mediocrity in the present.
A rebuild is a foreign thing for the Cardinals. It's going to hurt, but it's the right path to take for one of baseball's most successful franchises.