For the better part of four months here at Call To The Pen, we've discussed every angle of the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract extension negotiations.
Remember when it seemed like Guerrero's ultimatum had passed, and the first baseman was guaranteeing himself a trip to free agency? That had everyone asking if he would he get more than Kyle Tucker on his next contract.
Well, all those conversations can finally be put to rest. After long, tense negotiations that never seemed like they would end, the Toronto Blue Jays have secured their face of the franchise on a long-term deal at last.
First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a 14-year, $500 million contract extension, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. A monumental, no-deferral deal to keep the homegrown star in Toronto for the rest of his career.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 7, 2025
Fourteen years... my goodness that is a lot. Guerrero is only 26 years old, so this deal shouldn't age too horribly, but that $35.7 million AAV is going to look a lot worse when he's 37 than it does right now.
Speaking of the money — $500 million is the third-largest sum ever given to a baseball player, behind just $700 million men Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. However, given the massive amount of deferred money in Ohtani's deal, Guerrero's contract is the second-biggest in terms of present day value.
You can click on the first link in this article for my arguments on why Guerrero is not worth that kind of money or distinction. He's a great player, no doubt, but he's not generational in the way Soto or Ohtani are. And, sure, maybe in a decade, $500 million deals will become the norm for stars, and the deal won't look all that out of place.
But for now, this is clearly an overpay forced by desperation.
The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more money than he deserved because they had no choice
Let's review some of the immutable facts that led the Blue Jays to this decision.
1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the face of the franchise — and the face of baseball in Canada — and losing him for nothing more than a qualifying offer draft pick in free agency (or lackluster trade package at the trade deadline) was simply an intolerable outcome.
2) In 2021 and 2024, Guerrero was on the shortlist of the very best hitters in baseball. In the former year, his 166 wRC+ ranked second only to Bryce Harper, and in the latter season, his 165 wRC+ ranked sixth behind the five best players in baseball.
3) The Toronto Blue Jays do not have a strong farm system, with little impact talent at any level of the minors, especially on the position player side of things.
4) The Blue Jays have been wholly unable to lure marquee free agents to Canada. Since signing nine-figure free agents George Springer and Kevin Gausman in 2021, the team has only signed Anthony Santander to a free agent deal larger than three years or $65 million. They've routinely missed on their top targets from Ohtani to Soto to Roki Sasaki.
5) The following notable salaries are set to come off the books within the next three years: Springer ($25 million AAV), Gausman ($22 million), Chris Bassitt ($21 million), Max Scherzer ($15.5 million), and Bo Bichette ($11.2 million).
6) Speaking of Bichette, the two-time All Star ranked 22nd in fWAR (13.6) among position players between the 2021-23 seasons. However, after a disastrous campaign last year, the shortstop doesn't appear close to re-signing with the team.
Is it clear why the Blue Jays had to give Guerrero $500 million without any deferrals? Their long-term outlook already isn't rosy — losing the first baseman without a massive prospect package in hand would have been catastrophic.
Toronto backed itself into this corner years ago, when it decided to go star-hunting in free agency to supplement a promising young core, rather than fleshing out its depth with role players who could grow alongside Guerrero and Bichette.
We often commend teams that make that turn — the Cubs look pretty good with Kyle Tucker this year, as do the Red Sox with Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet. However, the flip side of the equation is when the team can't land a star, forcing itself into a position of no leverage with its rare in-house luminary.
Guerrero is the best homegrown player the Blue Jays have had in decades. Keeping him, regardless of the cost, gives the franchise a north star for the next decade and a half.
If the Blue Jays could go back and do it again, though, they surely wouldn't let it end up like this.