Late Sunday night, the Blue Jays and homegrown superstar, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally reached an agreement on a monster extension.
As reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Jays and Vladdy agreed to a 14-year contract worth 500 million.
BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in agreement with Blue Jays on 14-year, $500M extension, pending physical, sources tell @TheAthletic. Story to come.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 7, 2025
This deal, barring a trade, likely makes Guerrero a Blue Jay for the rest of his career. Given Vladdy's skillset and stats this far, what kind of production can we expect from him over the next 14 years? Will he age gracefully?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. versus Father Time
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has already demonstrated the ability to be one of the most prolific hitters in the MLB.
Since he entered the league in 2019, Guerrero has been near the top of exit velocity leaderboards — very few hitters can hit a baseball as hard as he can. In 2024, only Shohei Ohtani had more balls hit 95+ mph. Additionally, he ranked seventh in the MLB in average exit velocity and hard hit% according to Baseball Savant.
Guerrero not only posts power numbers, but is an elite contact hitter and is disciplined. This combination of skills is rare and makes Guerrero an extremely valuable bat to have in your lineup.
Predicting what will happen 14 years from now is extremely difficult, and Guerrero makes this task even more challenging with his inconsistent play early in his career. However, his build and raw skills give us every reason to believe he will be a productive hitter well into his 30s. Unlike players who rely on speed or raw athleticism, Guerrero has built his success on technique and strength. Father Time doesn't favor anyone, but athletes in Guerrero's mold tend to be better at staving of its effects.
A player's approach at the plate is vital if they hope to age well. Strikeouts inevitably will increase as a player's reaction time becomes slower with age. Having the innate ability to not chase will help minimize strike outs throughout a players career.
Guerrero's career chase rate is 27.8%, and has reached as low as 24.5% in 2021, his best season. This has led to a career strikeout rate of 15.6%, well below the league average. Guerrero's ability to avoid strike outs combined with his natural hitting ability sets him up for sustained success.
Another good place to look for aging curve data is at similar player comparisons. For Guerrero, one player who stands out as a fitting comparison is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera, the former MVP and triple crown winner for the Detroit Tigers, experienced sustained success well into his 30s before declining late in his career.
Cabrera was at least league average offensively (if not well above) into his age-35 season. Cabrera may have had an even longer period of success if it wasn't for injuries beginning in 2017 that plagued him the rest of his career.
Like Guerrero, Cabrera had elite offensive skills in all facets. His skills at the plate from power to plate discipline were all elite. His average exit velocity was in the top percentile of the MLB in each of the first two years it began to be tracked (2015-2016).
Cabrera finished his career with an impressively low strikeout rate of 17.8%. His worst strikeout rate came at age 39 in 2022, when he struck out in 23.3% of his at bats. Cabrera's career offers a potential sneak-peek into what Guerrero could achieve throughout the duration of his 14 year contract, so long as he stays healthy.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a generational talent that the Blue Jays will be lucky to have anchoring their lineup. He possesses all the offensive skills necessary to experience sustained success for years to come. Initial reactions may deem the $500 million sum an overpay, but players with Guerrero's talent don't come around very often. If he can produce at an MVP level through the remainder of his prime, he shouldn't have a hard time living up to the back end of this contract.