MLB: Identifying 2019 Breakout Candidates using Statcast

New technology allows fans to discover MLB breakouts even better. We’ll look at Statcast to determine players to watch in 2019!

In the current era of increased offense, teams are continuing to value offense and players who can put balls in the seats after all chicks dig the long ball. Jokes aside, with Statcast and other tools, MLB players have more information at their fingertips than ever before. They can use this to optimize their swings. Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, and JD Martinez are some of the most famous examples of players who changed their swings and became prolific offensive threats. 

Alas, we don’t get excited over players who have already arrived, we want to know who is coming next. This analysis will attempt to identify who you should be watching in spring training and early in the season.

To do this, I looked at the average launch angle of players from the beginning of the season through July 1 and then to the end of the season.  I then looked at their exit velocities as well because you still need to hit the ball hard to get it out of the park.  I also used Fangraph’s splits tools for first and second half batted ball profiles.  This is the same methodology that I used when predicting the Cubs 2019 offensive breakout.  Now, onward to the players that could be joining the Elevate and Celebrate club.

Devon Travis – 1st Half LA 1.5° – 2nd Half LA 12°

Travis had solid seasons in 2015 and 2016 before injuries and under performance led to him to be a negative performer in 2018.  But there is reason to be optimistic.  Travis had the biggest change in LA from the first half to the second.  He also started hitting the ball harder with an average EV of 88.4 MPH, slightly below average yes, but looking further his EV on balls in the air (fly balls and line drives) is a strong 92.4.  From the first half to the second, Travis reduced his GB rate from 58% to 44% and changed those worm burners into more fly balls and line drives.  If there is any risk, it’s that Travis popped out to the infield nearly 20% of the time which is all but an automatic out.  But if Travis can take his gains from the second half and drive his FBs to the outfield, he could return to being an average 2B and maybe a bit more.

Hunter Renfroe – 1st Half LA 15° – 2nd Half LA 20.3°

At first glance, Renfroe’s numbers don’t jump out and scream swing changer.  His swing changed 5 degrees, which is still notable, but the real excitement comes from his exit velocities and batted ball profile.  Renfroe’s AIR EV in the second half was a scorching 98 MPH.  That puts him in the same neighborhood as Christian Yelich and Shohei Ohtani and nearly 4 MPH above his new teammate Manny Machado.  Digging deeper, Renfroe added 10% points to his FB rate in the second half, hitting them 46% of the time.  His Pull% also dropped slightly in the second half and he was hitting more balls to the middle of the field.  While Petco Park, depresses right-handed power to a degree, if you hit the ball hard enough it still goes.  Renfroe is one of a million Padres OFers battling for ABs, if these changes stick, he could be the guy to cement a position for himself.

Michael A. Taylor – 1st Half LA 4.5° – 2nd Half LA 12°

Though he’ll likely begin the year as a fourth outfielder or a job share with top prospect Victor Robles, Michael A. Taylor could breakout as an above average regular OF.  Taylor is already an above average CF and we saw in 2017 what happens when he hits, contributing 3.1 fWAR in 118 games.  With Bryce Harper likely gone and unable to count on full season from Adam Eaton, Taylor could get ABs to show that he is more than just a fourth outfielder.  His AIR EV doesn’t blow you away (91.7 MPH), Taylor hits the ball on the ground too much (52% GB rate in the first half).  If he could turn that into more fly balls and line drives like he did the second half.  He was able to drop his ground ball rate and move his FB rate up to nearly 40%.  Taylor strikes out over 30% of the time so it is critical for him to maximize the contact he does make.  Taylor is a critical cog for the Nats as he is the first line of defense in the event of OF injury or underperformance.

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David Dahl – 1st Half LA 9.8° – 2nd Half LA 16°

Dahl has always been thought of as a future impact bat but has yet to deliver on that promise.  He did show signs of breaking out in the second half.  Dahl delivered on some of that process in the second half with a 119 wRC+.  He also had a favorable change in launch angle from the first half to the second.  His AIR EV went to 92.6 MPH which ranks him similarly to Anthony Rendon and Cody Bellinger. 

Dahl also had a favorable shift in batted ball profile, decreasing his GB% (from 43% to 37%) and increasing both his Pull% and FB%.  Playing half your games at Coors Field can help boost offense and Dahl is primed to take full advantage of that this season.

Some of the statistics could just be noise but changing a swing that dramatically from one half the season to the next indicates something more deliberate. Each of these MLB players has the power backed up by exit velocities to be impact hitters.  If these players continue to get comfortable with their new swings and iron out a few kinks, we could be looking at several of 2019’s breakout hitters.