San Diego Padres
This will assuredly be the most controversial pick of the team listed here, but hear me out.
You may wonder how a team that lost the 2024 NLDS to the Dodgers 3-2 is a pretender. President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller is not shy about making aggressive moves and spending lots of money.
Just recently, in 2022, they acquired Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals; in 2023, they signed then 30-year-old Manny Machado to an 11-year $350 million extension and then 36-year-old Yu Darvish to a six-year $108 million deal. However, this offseason, all the Padres have done is avoid arbitration by giving eligible players one-year contracts.
In a division with the defending World Series champions — who have been busy this offseason by signing Tanner Scott, Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Michael Conforto, Hyeseong Kim, and re-signing Teoscar Hernádez — it would seem the Padres would need to keep up by adding top-tier talent, but they've failed to do so.
Even the San Francisco Giants (adding Willy Adames and Justin Verlander) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (adding Corbin Burnes and Josh Naylor) have improved their rosters.
The Padres are returning most significant production from 2024, but they've already lost Scott, Kyle Higashioka and Jurrickson Profar (among others). They're banking on internal improvements saving the day come 2025.
Jackson Merrill had an outstanding rookie year last season, hitting .292/.326/.500 with 24 HRs, 90 RBIs, and 16 SBs. He finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year Award behind Pittsburgh Pirates star Paul Skenes. The Padres hope to get the same production from one of their top prospects, Tirso Ornelas, who Fangraphs projects to crack the Opening Day roster in left field.
Jackson Merrill last year in minors:
— Josh Taylor (@SDFan2378) January 26, 2025
.277/.326/.444 with 15 HR and 64 RBI (A+ and 46 games AA)
Tirso Ornelas last year:
.297/.367/.497 with 23 HR and 89 RBI (AAA)
For comparison sakes his last year in (AA):
.284/.381/.473 with 11 HR and 51 RBI (72 games)
The Padres need to improve their back-end starting pitchers. The top three starters have been up-and-down over the years, but if the Padres want to dethrone the Dodgers, they need a repeat performance of 2024's production.
Dylan Cease had a bounce back season, pitching to a 3.47 ERA after an abysmal 2023 when he posted a 4.58 ERA; Yu Darvish battled injuries all season but posted a 3.31 ERA over 82.1 innings; and Michael King erupted in his first full season as a starting pitcher.
The projected fourth and fifth starters, Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron, had 2024 ERAs of 4.87 and 4.91, respectively. The team's philosophy appears to be hoping their offense can light up the scoreboard, because the starting rotation could struggle to limit runs, especially if Cease is traded or Darvish cannot stay healthy.
The Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves are teams at the top of the National League that added notable talent this offseason to get better, while the Padres unexpectedly chose to be stagnant.
They have the 25th lowest Competitive Balance Tax Space available, but they could still add discounted starting pitching. Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran, or Anthony DeSclafani are a few names that could come at a cheap price and improve the depth in the starting rotation, while Flaherty represents their best chance to secure an impact starter after missing out on Roki Sasaki.