The Toronto Blue Jays have had an interesting offseason up to this point to say the least, and it got even weirder on Thursday after they inked Max Scherzer to a one year deal worth $15.5 million.
Breaking: Max Scherzer to Blue Jays
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 30, 2025
After missing out on both Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki, they pivoted to Anthony Santander and now, Scherzer. While it seemed like it was about time for him to hang up the spikes following a season in which he was mostly banged up, the show goes on for the three-time Cy Young Award winner.
With that being said, does Scherzer have anything left in the tank for Toronto?
Scherzer's health will be a huge question mark for the Blue Jays
Scherzer only managed to log 43.1 innings for the Texas Rangers in 2024 while he dealt with back, shoulder, and hamstring injuries. Given his age, and now lengthy list of recent injuries, I would have been the last person to dish out $15.5 million for Scherzer.
However, if Scherzer was going to make himself available for an MLB team, someone was going to have overpay to add him to their staff. There was no way all 30 MLB teams were going to pass on the future Hall of Famer.
Justin Verlander, whose career has tracked nearly identically to Scherzer's over the last couple of seasons, recently signed a one-year deal with the Giants for $15 million. By that standard, Scherzer's contract is not an overpay relative to the "elderly pitchers" market, but it is still not the wisest of financial decisions nonetheless.
The good news for Toronto is they had the money to spend, even after signing Anthony Santander to a $92.5 million contract, and they still have more to work with following the Scherzer deal.
Notable free agents like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Jack Flaherty are still on the market, and the Scherzer signing by no means puts them in a bind to where they can't spend on any of those guys, or even extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term contract extension.
What is Scherzer's outlook for 2025 based on his most recent performance?
As stated previously, Scherzer only threw about 43 innings in 2024, which was the lowest mark of his 17 year career thus far — including his rookie year and the shortened COVID season.
Despite battling injury, his numbers were actually not all that bad. His 3.95 ERA was his highest since 2011, while his 22.6 K% was a career low. However, both of those were still better than the league average in 2024.
Across the board, Scherzer's numbers show that he can still produce at an above-average level when healthy. His 4.18 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 16.9 K-BB%, and .241 BAA all tracked well relative to the rest of the league.
Over the course of a full season (which would be a tough ask for Scherzer at this point), those are middle-of-the-rotation type numbers. With the depth at the front end of Toronto's rotation, 75-100 innings might be all Toronto needs from Scherzer. If he can surpass that and give them around 120 to 140 innings with that level of production, I think they'll make their money's worth. Once again, though, those are big ifs.
As it stands, it looks like Scherzer will slot into the fouth spot in Toronto's rotation behind Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt. Prior to adding Scherzer, Bowden Francis would have been their No. 4 while the fifth spot would have been some kind of combination of Yariel Rodirguez and Jake Bloss. The addition of Scherzer helps to fill that hole for the time being.
On top of what Scherzer might be able to provide on the mound when healthy, he's obviously also going to be a valuable veteran presence in the clubhouse — something that doesn't necessarily have a price tag on it.
He also has a whole lot of postseason experience as well, pitching in the World Series as recently as 2023 with the Rangers. A veteran as seasoned as Scherzer might be exactly what this under-performing Toronto Blue Jays team needs heading into a very important season for the franchise.