Let's get this out of the way: the Dodgers are almost certainly going to be the team that signs Roki Sasaki.
That has been true for a long while — since well before Sasaki was posted during the Winter Meetings — and nothing that's happened in recent weeks has changed that.
In fact, it may becoming only more inevitable after the latest wave of updates. Earlier this week, a lot of teams were eliminated from the running. And now, just a few days before Sasaki's posting deadline is up, the Padres have been told they won't be the team landing Sasaki.
The Padres have reportedly been eliminated in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes.#MLBNHotStove | @jonmorosi pic.twitter.com/vTP2mnjRtt
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 17, 2025
The Padres were, for all intents and purposes, the Dodgers' primary competition for Sasaki's services. Shortly after that news dropped, more reports came out that Dodgers were indeed going to be the team that would win the Sasaki sweepstakes.
Source: Roki Sasaki is close to deal with the Dodgers. The source tells me that it will be a big surprise if Sasaki goes to Toronto. #Dodgers #BlueJays https://t.co/8fQx1wRcl3
— Mike Rodriguez (@mikedeportes) January 17, 2025
Debate the veracity of the rumor or the source all you like — Rodriguez has missed on plenty of reports before, but he's been on top of the Sasaki stuff all winter — it remains true that the Dodgers have always been an inevitability in this race.
However, the deal hasn't been signed just yet. What, if anything, is holding up the proceedings?
Dodgers Need More International Signing Money To Finalize Sasaki Deal
In a last gasp as the other finalist for Sasaki, the Toronto Blue Jays completed a trade that widened their available pool of international signing bonus money (and also landed them a former Gold Glove winner).
OFFICIAL: We’ve acquired OF Myles Straw, cash, and international bonus signing pool space for the 2025 period from the Guardians in exchange for a player to be named later or cash.
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) January 17, 2025
Straw won the Gold Glove Award in 2022. pic.twitter.com/QdhqH8b6ON
The Blue Jays aren't taking on the remainder of Straw's five-year, $25 million contract he signed in 2022 out of the goodness of their hearts. They wanted that extra bonus pool space in order to present Sasaki with the highest possible offer.
As it turns out, the Dodgers are seemingly trying to do the same thing. FanGraphs lead prospect writer Eric Longenhagen shared during a radio interview that the Dodgers might have a deal lined up to send top outfield prospect Josue De Paula to an unidentified team, in exchange for $3 million in spending power in the IFA market.
One team that has been heavily connected to this already is the Cubs — one of the teams who lost out on Sasaki — who were trudging their feet once the 2025 international amateur free agency period opened up (but have since completed a lot of signings).
As a reminder, Sasaki, as a 23-year-old international player, cannot sign a major league contract with a MLB team this offseason. He must sign a minor league deal, and then will be subject to the normal six years of team control that domestic prospects are.
Hence, he's likely holding out for the largest possible signing bonus, since that will be the largest sum of money he receives from his team until at least his second year in arbitration (2029). The Dodgers certainly wouldn't give away De Paula — one of the 40 best prospects in baseball — unless they had a deal with Sasaki lined up that was contingent on them acquiring more IFA bonus pool space.
Sasaki's posting window closes on January 23. He's going to sign with the Dodgers or Blue Jays before then, though it'll almost certainly be the team out in Los Angeles. Fans may just have to wait a few more days until the Dodgers can scrounge up a few more million to give the Japanese phenom.