If you wanted confirmation that a player’s decision whether to accept or reject a qualifying offer comes with major implications, this offseason has certainly provided it.
Thirteen players were tendered the one-year, $21.05 million offer by their former teams. But only one, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Martinez, accepted.
The other dozen preferred to hit the open market with what, in retrospect, has so far been drastically varying results. Most appear to have turned their gamble into a small — and in at least one case a large — fortune.
But with the opening of spring camps just a couple weeks away, three of those dozen who turned down the $21.05 million remain unemployed, not to mention increasingly frustrated.
From most successful to most frustrated, here’s a look at the late-January status of the dozen players who turned down the QO and bet on their agent’s negotiating ability instead.
Grand slam
Juan Soto, Mets: 15 years, $765 million
Soto’s signing by Mets owner Steve Cohen and president David Stearns was and is certain to remain the story of the winter.
Coming off a season in which he hit 41 homers, drove in 109 runs, and produced a .989 OPS, there was never any doubt that Soto would do better on the open market than one year and $21.05 million. Still, the deal by which he got quite a few pennies more than Shohei Ohtani got last year to sign with the Dodgers came as at least a modest surprise, if only for its size.
Home runs
Willy Adames, Giants: 7 years, $182 million
Willy Adames, who will not be 30 until September, turned down the chance to return to the NL Central champion Brewers and opted instead to try to help San Francisco run down the Dodgers in the NL West.
Max Fried, Yankees: 8 years, $218 million
We now know the answer to the question, ‘who in their right mind gives an eight-year deal to a pitcher in their 30s who’s had arm problems?’ Limited to 14 appearances in 2023, Fried made 29 starts last year and produced a 3.25 ERA in 174 innings. Yankee GM Brian Cashman was, it would seem, quite impressed with Fried's comeback.
Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 years, $210 million
If Burnes hasn’t been the best pitcher in MLB since 2021, he’s certainly in the running. He is 48-30 with at least 165 innings and at least 28 starts, all good for a 2.94 ERA. The Diamondbacks, coming off buzzard’s luck in their 2023 pursuit of Jordan Montgomery, decided to give it another go at the top of the starting pitcher food chain,
Extra-base hits
Luis Severino, Athletics: 3 years, $67 million
Severino's 3.91ERA in 31 2024 starts for the Mets — followed by a pair of underwhelming postseason appearances — turned off most of the big bidders. But the A’s, needing to give money to somebody, found Severino willing to accept it even if it means pitching three seasons in Sacramento.
Sean Manaea, Mets: 3 years, $75 million
Until Kodai Senga proves his health, Manaea is unofficially the ace of the Mets. He jacked that $21.05 million qualifying offer by 20 percent and added two years to it. So, at least Manaea begins spring training with at least one win under his belt.
Singles
Christian Walker, Houston Astros: 3 years, $60 million
In declining the qualifying offer, Walker added two additional seasons of security in Houston, although at a fractionally lower annual take. On the plus side, Walker’s power should fit nicely at Minute Maid. On the minus side, he’s entering his age-34 season, so the negotiating only gets harder once this deal expires after 2027.
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 years, $66 million
Like Manaea, Hernandez turned down one year for three, although at a slightly smaller $22 million per-season figure. He’s 32, so like Walker, this may have been his last good shot at a healthy multi-year deal.
Anthony Santander, Toronto Blue Jays: 5 years, $92.5 million
For the 30-year-old Santander, the five guaranteed years is a big positive. He’s been productive in Baltimore — a 134 OPS+ with 44 home runs last season — and there’s no real reason to expect a short-term decline.
But that additional security came at a cost. Annualized, Santander’s deal only works out to about $18.5 million, or about $2 million less than he would have gotten (in 2025 at least) by taking the qualifying offer and hitting the market again next winter.
Swinging and (so far) missing
Pete Alonso
Not only did Alonso turn down the one year, $21.05 qualifying offer from the Mets, he also turned down a subsequent three-year follow-up. The Mets have sent mixed signals regarding their continued interest in Alonso, who may not have many other places to go. Here’s a fair question: If Alonso had an offer that was close to his liking, wouldn’t he have taken it by now?
Alex Bregman
The rumor is that Bregman has multiple suitors, among them the Cubs, Red Sox and Tigers. Of course, Scott Boras is Bregman’s agent, so the legitimacy of those rumors might be in question. All we know for sure is that Bregman has sneered at Houston’s offer of $156 million for six years, and that nobody else has thus far stepped up to fill the vacuum.
Nick Pivetta
After going 6-12 with a 4.14 ERA in 26 starts for the Red Sox last season, Pivetta somehow came to the illogical conclusion that his performance would lure teams above and beyond the qualifying offer Boston put out. It hasn’t happened yet, and for the most part, there is radio silence on the Pivetta negotiating front.